Sector

Autonomous Vehicles

Self-driving cars, lidar sensors, autonomous trucking, and the end of human-piloted transport.

🚘 Waymo is doing 150,000+ autonomous rides per week. The technology works. The question is now rollout economics and regulatory pace.

Why This Sector Matters

Full self-driving is the most consequential automation event in transport history. The global taxi and truck driving market represents ~$4T in annual wages. When autonomous systems are safer, cheaper, and available 24/7, the reallocation of that capital is inevitable. We are at the inflection: Waymo proved safety, Tesla is proving scale, and sensor costs have dropped 10× in five years.

Key Sub-Themes

Full Self-Driving Systems — Tesla FSD (vision-only) and Waymo (lidar + vision + radar) represent the two dominant approaches. Tesla bets on scale of supervised learning; Waymo bets on sensor redundancy. Both work in different ways.

Lidar & Sensors — Luminar (LAZR), Innoviz (INVZ), Ouster (OUST), Velodyne-merged, Aeva (AEVA), and MicroVision (MVIS) provide the sensing layer. Commodity pricing pressure is intense — survival requires design wins with major OEMs.

AV Chips — Mobileye (MBLY) is the dominant ADAS chip supplier to traditional OEMs. NVIDIA DRIVE platform is the next-gen competitor. Qualcomm Snapdragon Ride targets the mid-tier.

Autonomous Trucking — Torc (Daimler-owned), Aurora (AUR), and Kodiak are tackling long-haul first — fewer variables, predictable routes, enormous commercial value. The $700B US trucking market is the early prize.

Mapping & Geospatial — HD maps are required for most Level 4 systems. HERE, TomTom, and Mobileye’s REM system crowdsource map updates from existing vehicles.

Listed Stocks

Ticker Company Focus Key Catalyst
TSLA Tesla Vision-based FSD FSD v13 expansion
MBLY Mobileye ADAS + L4 chips SuperVision design wins
LAZR Luminar Technologies Lidar sensors OEM production ramp
INVZ Innoviz Technologies Lidar (BMW) BMW production volumes
OUST Ouster Lidar (merged Velodyne) Rev growth
AEVA Aeva Technologies Frequency-modulated lidar Tier 1 design win
MVIS MicroVision Lidar + AR Automotive design win

Filter AV stocks →

Civilization Dependency Chain

ADAS (lane keep, ACC) → Highway Autopilot → Urban Level 4
→ Autonomous Robotaxis (commercial) → Autonomous Trucking (interstate)
→ Zero-accident Transport → Personal Vehicle Obsolescence
→ City Redesign (no parking) → Autonomous Flying Vehicles

Each dependency requires regulatory approval plus sensor cost reduction. The unlock at each level is a 10× cost drop or a definitive safety proof point.

  • Now–2028: Robotaxi expansion (Waymo, Tesla), autonomous trucking commercial ops
  • 2028–2030: Level 4 personal vehicles, autonomous interstate freight mainstream
  • 2030+: Personal car ownership decline in cities, autonomous flying vehicles, zero-accident highways

Deep Dive Articles — Coming Soon

Sensor cost curves, FSD vs Waymo technical comparison, and the trucking automation timeline.